Finland, Denmark, Sweden seen to reach 74 GW of onshore wind & solar by 2030

The Nordic region is set to play a growing role as a green powerhouse for Europe as Sweden, Finland and Denmark work to increase their renewables capacity, according to an analysis by Rystad Energy.

The research firm expects that the three countries will increase their combined utility-scale solar and onshore wind capacity to 74 GW by 2030 from 32 GW in 2022, with onshore wind accounting for the bigger part, 61.5 GW, of the total.

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Sweden is seen to install 30 GW of onshore wind by 2030, while adding 3 GW of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity over the period. Finland is set to boost its onshore wind capacity to 20 GW by 2030 from 5 GW in 2022 and add just 0.8 GW of solar. Denmark will expand its onshore wind capacity by 11.5 GW and solar by 9 GW up to 2030. Denmark is also expected to increase its offshore wind capacity to 8.8 GW from 2.3 GW now, meaning that deployment will need to be ramped up to reach the Danish government’s new target of 12.9 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030. Sweden and Finland are projected to install a combined 6 GW of offshore wind by 2030.

Denmark, Sweden and Finland have also announced almost 40 green hydrogen projects scheduled to come online by 2030, which will give them a combined 18% of Europe’s electrolyser capacity for green hydrogen production.

“The Nordics at present produce over 90% of their power (including nuclear) via renewables and are significant electricity exporters to the rest of Europe. That trend will intensify as geography, technology and managerial experience in the region will see renewable investment and generation increase. This will be welcome news to heavy industries in the region as Europe seeks to cut emissions,” commented Francesca Bjornflaten, senior analyst, renewables at Rystad Energy.

Norway and Iceland were not included in the analysis as they generate most of their electricity from hydropower and are not set to build a substantial amount of wind energy in the future.