November 20 (Renewables Now) - Spain’s installed wind power capacity could reach 40 GW by 2030, providing more than 30% of the country’s total power, according to a scenario by the Spanish Wind Energy Association (AEE).
The association’s scenario includes ambitious electrification and decarbonisation objectives in line with the goal of cutting EU greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80%-95% by 2050 set under the Paris agreement.
“The electricity sector must move towards scenarios where new electricity demand is covered without jeopardizing emission reduction objectives,” AEE said, estimating that Spain can lift its wind capacity to 28 GW by 2020, including the Canary Islands, if it adds 1.7 GW of fresh wind each year between end-2017 and the start of 2020. Following 2020, the pace can be slowed down to 1.2 GW of new wind farms per year on average up to 2030 when the projected 40 GW could be reached. In 2050 the country can have 60 GW.
Such new wind power capacity additions are seen to help Spain lower its harmful emissions from the electricity sector by 30% by 2020, as compared to 2005 levels, and by 42% by 2030, achieving carbon neutrality by 2040.
“The additional 17,000 MW of wind power by 2030 stated in AEE's scenario are key to cover the reduced output of fossil fuel-based generation plants in the system and to cover the increase in demand as a result of greater economic activity and the electrification of transport,” AEE said. It noted, however, that the country will need to have a secure regulatory framework offering a suitable investment environment as the current energy model “is not compatible” with European goals. “Energy planning of the new model must give long term visibility and coordinate transversal policies,” said Juan Virgilio Marquez, AEE’s CEO.
According to the scenario, renewables would meet 40% of the country’s power demand in 2020, 62% in 2030, 92% in 2040 and 100% by 2050.