PAPER - Up to 10 TW of solar by 2030 challenging but possible

An international group of solar experts say that the world could have 5 TW to 10 TW of photovoltaic (PV) capacity installed by 2030, sourcing a significant portion of its electricity from the sun.

In 2015, the photovoltaic (PV) technology accounted for about 1% of global electricity, although it represented about 20% of new installations, the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) said last week as it announced the paper, outlining the pathway to TW-scale PVs.

According to the experts, the PV industry is on a trajectory to reach at least 3 TW of cumulative installations by 2030. A figure of 5 TW to 10 TW is realistic if a number of challenges are overcome, namely: a continued reduction in the cost of PV and improvement of solar module performance; a drop in the cost of and time required for expanding manufacturing and installation capacity; a move to more flexible grids; an increase in electricity demand by using more for transportation and heating or cooling; and continued progress in storage for solar energy.

The analysis is a product of the Global Alliance of Solar Energy Research Institutes (GA-SERI), which includes NREL and similar institutes in Japan and Germany, as well as researchers at universities and industry. The paper was published in Science.

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