NPD Solarbuzz says many tier 2, 3 polysilicon makers not to survive next 18 months

Oct 3, 2012 - Many of the tier 2 and 3 polysilicon producers globally may exit the sector in the coming 18 months as capacity in the industry is to grow by 22% this year despite the exiting supply-demand crisis, NPD Solarbuzz predicts.

By the end of the current year average industry-wide polysilicon prices for photovolatics (PV) are seen falling by 52% in 2012, with factory utilisation going further down to 63% from 77% in 2011.

According to NPD Solarbuzz's Q3 2012 Polysilicon and Wafer Supply Chain Quarterly Report released on Monday, total polysilicon capacity globally will surpass 385,000 tonnes this year, with 70% in the hands of a small number of tier 1 producers. The latter would be able to meet all polysilicon demand, under the market research firm’s most-likely end-market scenario for the next few years, seriously threatening the business of the 57 tier 2 and 3 companies. The report predicts that a few tier 1 makers may also become victims to the tough market environment in the coming years.

In 2013 polysilicon capacity is seen to expand by 18% more. Average polysilicon prices are expected to start to stabilise in the year to some USD 21 (EUR 16) per kg with the remaining producers more successfully matching utilisation rates to end-market demand. NPDSolarbuzz vice president Charles Annis pointed out that prices might also rise if the Ministry of Commerce in China decided to introduce anti-dumping and countervailing duties on polysilicon imports. Annis said that this would help only a few Chinese players. "It will hurt not only foreign producers but many Chinese wafer, cell, and module makers," he commented.

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