Oct 31, 2012 - The decline in photovoltaic (PV) module prices will slow down in 2013 and cease by the second half of the year, IHS (NYSE:IHS) projects in a new report.
The market research firm said that a surge in installations in Germany in the second quarter of 2012 had temporarily eased the pace of falls in PV cell and module prices. With demand in Europe and Asian markets, China in particular, weakening in the third quarter, however, prices were again severely squeezed. Wafer prices were down 11%, module prices dropped 14%, while cell and polysilicon prices both tumbled 17%, according to the IHS iSuppli PV Integrated market tracker report.
Further drops are expected towards the end of the year. Average market prices for crystalline modules are forecast to slip 9% in the fourth quarter to USD 0.64 (EUR 49) per watt from USD 0.70 at end September. By the fourth quarter of next year, average prices of crystalline modules are projected to reach USD 0.55 per watt, 14% lower than a year back.
The German demand drove global installations to 8.2 GW in the second quarter. Stefan de Haan, principal analyst at IHS, said that after flattening in the third quarter, the worldwide market was seen to expand in the fourth quarter to 8.7 GW. Installations for the whole of 2012 are expected to stand at over 31 GW, an increase of 11% on 2011.
Revenue for the global solar module industry, including crystalline as well as thin-film modules, showed a decline for the first time this year, falling by 7% in the third quarter from the second to USD 6.63 billion. In the prior quarter revenues rose 2% from USD 7.03 billion in the first quarter. Turnover is expected to decrease to USD 6.62 billion in the fourth quarter and bottom out in the first quarter of 2013. It is then expected to start recovering, regaining lost ground by the final quarter of the year, when it is project to reach USD 7.06 billion.
(USD 1.0 = EUR 0.769)
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