The global clean hydrogen market is heading towards a twofold expansion in 2021, driven by net-emission and carbon neutrality targets in Europe and China, BloombergNEF (BNEF) says in a new report.
The research company’s 2H 2021 Hydrogen Market Outlook shows that the electrolyser market is set to double this year on the back of China’s “surprising” growth in the first half of 2021 and reach at least 1.8 GW in 2022.
As companies in the Asian country strive to align with the government’s carbon neutrality strategy and are rushing to produce hydrogen, China is expected to account for 60%-63% of the world’s installed electrolyser capacity,
By 2030, installations worldwide are projected to surpass 40 GW based on developer disclosures, BloombergNEF adds.
“Nearly everything has doubled already this year in the world of clean hydrogen, and we expect the momentum to continue in the months ahead,” said Martin Tengler, lead hydrogen analyst at BloombergNEF. He highlighted the rising number of countries that have already published a hydrogen strategy or are developing one, as well as the over 90 projects being planned on the global hydrogen scene.
In line with national targets, individual governments are expected to increase the subsidies for hydrogen, which will result in some USD 11.4 billion (EUR 9.6bn) available per year for low-carbon hydrogen production in the 2021-2030 period.
However, large-scale demand for clean hydrogen is moving at snail's pace, unable to keep up with electrolyser makers’ capacity expansion plans due to the lack of strong policies to stimulate and sustain consumer appetite, BloomberNEF warns.
“We'll need to see CO2 prices of at least $100 per ton by 2030 to incentivize hydrogen adoption. No country has such carbon prices today, and we forecast only three markets to reach that level before 2030: Canada, the EU and the UK,” said Tengler.
BloombergNEF anticipates that 16 GW of the electrolyser manufacturing capacity are seen to go online by 2024. This capacity will be more than enough to cover demand, leaving many factories underused and pushing down prices, the research service explained.
(USD 1.0 = EUR 0.844)
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Hydrogen tanks. Source: US Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy
