EU forecast to fall short of REPowerEU plan

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The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) main-case forecast for renewables expansion in the EU electricity, transport and heating sectors falls short of the European Commission’s (EC) REPowerEU plan.

The forecast is part of IEA’s Renewables 2022 report, released on Tuesday.

The REPowerEU plan was unveiled in May in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and is aimed at ending dependence on Russian fossil fuels.

In IEA’s main case, the share of renewables in electricity reaches almost 55% by 2027, while the EC estimates the REPowerEU plan will warrant a share of 69% by 2030. Renewable energy shortages are also projected in the transport and heating/cooling sectors. Below is IEA’s summary of renewable energy benchmarks by sector in REPowerEU plan and its main and accelerated cases.

Segment	RePowerEU benchmarks, 2030	Main case / accelerated case benchmarks, 2027
Electricity	69%	54% / n/a
-Solar capacity	592 GW	396 GW / 471GW
-Wind capacity	510 GW	290 GW / 316 GW
Transport	32%	16% / 20%
Heating and cooling
Share of renewable energy in heating and cooling	2.3‑percentage‑point average annual increase to 2030	0.9‑percentage‑point average annual increase to 2030
Share of renewable energy in industry	1.9‑percentage-point average annual increase to 2030	0.9‑percentage-point average annual increase to 2030
Share of renewable energy in buildings sector final energy consumption	60%	32%

In the electricity sector, capacity expansion is held back by inadequate support schemes, lengthy and complex permitting procedures, and slow network upgrades, the agency says. By tackling some of these challenges, the EU could increase its solar and wind deployment by 30% between 2022 and 2027, it adds.

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