Big investments in offshore wind, NPPs under Polish energy policy to 2040

Poland’s climate minister presented last week an updated version of the country’s energy policy to 2040 and said offshore wind and nuclear energy will be two strategic new areas and industries to be developed.

The Polish Energy Policy to 2040 (PEP2040) is based on three pillars: a just transition, a zero-emission energy system, and good air quality. It envisages an investment of about PLN 130 billion (USD 35bn/EUR 29bn) to get Poland 8 GW to 11 GW of offshore wind by 2040, and PLN 150 billion for 6 GW to 9 GW of nuclear power capacity.

Minister Michal Kurtyka said that by 2040, more than half of Poland’s installed power capacity will be based on zero-emission sources. The country’s first nuclear power plant (NPP) is expected to go live by 2033.

The updated policy sets a 23% renewable energy goal for 2030, including a share of 32% in electricity generation -- mainly from wind and solar photovoltaics (PV), 28% in heating and 14% in transport.

To meet the renewable power goal, Poland will have to reach 5.9 GW of offshore wind, 8 GW-10 GW of onshore wind and 5 GW-7 GW of solar PV. To increase the share of renewables in heating, the country will rely on bioenergy and geothermal energy, while for greener transport it will need more biofuels and electric vehicles (EVs).

After more than 40 years of communism, Poland‘s power mix in 1989 was almost 100% coal and today the country remains the EU member states with the highest share of coal in the energy mix. It will have to build a completely new energy system over then next two decades.

The new energy policy sets a cap of 56% for the share of coal in 2030 electricity generation, which is still very high compared to the rest of the EU. By 2040, the plan is to cut the share of coal in power to between 11% and 28%. By that year, Poland also aims to have 8 GW to 11 GW of offshore wind capacity and 10 GW to 16 GW of solar PV.

The strategic document is now subject to review by different committees and fuctions, before it is adopted by the Council of Ministers.

(PLN 10 = USD 2.67/EUR 2.25)

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