Bernreuter sees 95-97 GW of new solar capacity in 2017

Solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity installations in 2017 will rise by roughly 30% over the 74 GW the world added last year, arriving somewhere between 95 GW and 97 GW, according to calculations by Bernreuter Research.

About 100 GW of crystalline solar cells and 5 GW of thin-film modules will be produced, but several gigawatts of shipments to the US will be stockpiled for deployment in 2018. Developers have been preparing themselves for some time for solar import tariffs.

Demand on the solar market this year will be driven, again, by China. The country is expected to top 50 GW of new capacity after adding 42 GW in the first nine months of the year, Bernreuter Research said. Details on the top 10 markets by 2017 installations, according to the company, are in the table below.

POLYSILICON MARKET

“[..] polysilicon supply will be sufficient to produce 100 GW of crystalline solar cells without overly depleting inventories,” says Johannes Bernreuter, author of the Polysilicon Market Outlook 2020. Global output in the current year is seen to reach about 460,000 to 465,000 tonnes of the raw material, including 30,000 tonnes for the semiconductor industry.

Bernreuter expects the polysilicon spot price to decline to between USD 14 (EUR 12) and USD 15 per kg by end-2017, from the roughly USD 16.60/kg currently, as plants return back online after maintenance. Still, the spot price may increase if China lifts its duties on polysilicon imports from South Korea in November.

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