World could top 200 GW of offshore wind by 2030 - GWEC

The Dalian Zhuanghe offshore wind farm in China. Source: China Three Gorges Corporation

June 27 (Renewables Now) - The world’s offshore wind industry capacity is expected to reach 190 GW by 2030 or even exceed 200 GW, depending on whether the additional potential in the sector is realised, a new report says.

In the first edition of its Global Offshore Wind Report, the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) notes that the sector has grown 21% on average each year since 2013 to reach 23 GW of installed capacity around the world. This includes 4 GW of new installations in each of 2017 and 2018, with China becoming the largest offshore market last year.

The report makes projections based on two scenarios: business-as-usual (BAU) and an upside scenario.

The BAU case does not incorporate further technical development or further opportunities for offshore wind and is based on current policies and expected auctions and tenders. GWEC’s BAU forecast is that roughly 165 GW of new capacity will be installed globally between now and 2030, with annual installations of 15 GW to 20 GW after 2025 seen as realistic based on growth in China and other Asian markets.

The upside scenario, on the other hand, captures the additional potential provided by the advancement of floating technology, improved cost competitiveness and the opening up of new markets. It guides for about 210 GW of total installed capacity in 2030.

According to the report, Europe will achieve a total installed capacity of 78 GW by 2030 under the BAU scenario, while Asia will dominate with around 100 GW thanks to China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Japan, India and South Korea.

Meanwhile, the US is expected to reach 2 GW by 2025, with the potential to hit 10 GW towards 2030.

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