US solar prices to keep falling through 2016 - study

Oct 21, 2014 - Distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) system prices in the US are expected to decline by between 3% and 12% in 2014, after losing 12%-19% in 2013, a new government-backed study shows.

Overall, prices are to keep falling through 2016, the US Department of Energy's (DOE) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) say in their latest report on PV pricing. They stressed that, with this downward pricing trend, the US SunShot Initiative's goal of bringing the cost of solar power down to USD 0.06 (EUR 0.047) per kWh is “more and more likely” to be achieved.

According to the report, the median price for solar systems of less than 10 kW completed in 2013 was USD 4.69 per watt, while for large commercial of over 100 kW it stood at USD 3.89/W. For ground-mounted PV plants bigger than 5 MW the capacity weighted average price was USD 3.00/W.

Modeled solar PV system prices, on the other hand, reached as low as USD 1.92/W for utility-scale solar plants, as quoted in the final quarter of 2012. NREL and LBNL say they have for sure gone down below USD 2 per watt in 2013 and are estimated at about USD 1.80/W in 2014. This means that this year the price is 59% lower than in 2010.

NREL's David Feldman, a lead author of the report, noted that it is yet unclear how low PV system prices will drop in the next five to 10 years. Factors that impact prices and lead to the variations in the forecast percentages include system location, market segment, prevailing electric retail rates, etc.

To carry out the research NREL and LBNL got funding from the the DOE’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.

(USD 1 = EUR 0.780)

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