UK predicts only 18 GW of offshore wind under central 2030 scenario

Jul 18, 2013 - Britain expects to have only 18 GW of offshore wind capacity in 2030 under a central scenario unveiled yesterday as part of the consultation on the draft Electricity Market Reform (EMR).

The figure for onshore wind, excluding installations below 5 MW, is 14 GW. Both projections are included in the "central" carbon intensity scenario that envisages a trajectory to around 100 gr of carbon dioxide (CO2) per kWh in 2030.

Wind and marine energy industries trade body RenewableUK was quick to comment on the scenario on Wednesday, saying that it is "bad for growth, bad for jobs, and bad for popularity". It pointed out that in some of the six scenarios, the UK government is predicting onshore and offshore wind capacity below the existing high-end estimate for 2020. "By first shaving down numbers for 2020 and then putting forward low numbers for 2030 our ability to bring costs down is restricted," said Maf Smith, deputy CEO of RenewableUK.

The draft EMR includes three levels of carbon intensity and three technology scenarios. The lowest capacity projections for the wind sector are in the third carbon intensity analysis based on a trajectory to around 200 gr of CO2 per kWh in 2030. Here, offshore wind capacity is expected at only 9 GW, and onshore wind is seen reaching 11 GW. On the other hand, the lower-carbon scenario with a trajectory to around 50 gr of CO2/kWh in 2030, envisages 23 GW of offshore and 14 GW of onshore.

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