Turkey can choose renewables over coal with little difference in costs - BNEF

Nov 19, 2014 - Betting on renewables will allow Turkey to boost its power capacity by 2030 and cut dependence on natural gas, and the cost would be the same as in its "dash for coal", Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) says.

The market research company calculates that the country will need some USD 400 billion (EUR 319bn) in investments to meet growing power demand by 2030, no matter if it turns to coal or a mix of renewable energies. It is true that green energy will bring grid improvement and balancing costs, but it will reduce Tukey’s exposure to commodity prices and help it control carbon emissions and air pollution.

The Turkish government expects to see electricity demand grow by 5% per year by 2030 due to the expanding economy in the country. Its plan for now is to use a mix of local lignite resources and hard coal and reduce gas imports, which will result in a significant increase in power sector emissions.

WWF-Turkey commissioned the BNEF report, financed by the European Climate Foundation, in order to show that clean energy technologies offer a cost-comparable alternative for Turkey’s energy future. “If externalities such as carbon costs are factored in, the comparison looks even better for renewables,” commented Ugur Bayar, director of the board of WWF-Turkey.

BNEF has developed a Renewables Development Pathway, or RDP, scenario under which renewables, including hydropower plants (HPPs), will boost their share of Turkey’s total generation to 47% in 2030 from 29% in 2013. Meanwhile, the contribution of gas-fired power will drop to 26% from 40% and coal’s share will also fall to 18% from 27%. “Emissions would continue to grow slowly for the next few years, but then stabilise rather than rising steeply,” BNEF says.

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