Floating offshore wind will achieve full commercialisation without subsidies by 2035, according to some 60% of wind professionals surveyed by Norwegian assurance provider DNV.
Within this group, 25% think floating wind will be commercial without subsidies even earlier, by 2030. A further 20% believe this milestone will be reached by 2040.
The survey involved 244 developers, investors, manufacturers, advisors and operators around the world.
Underlying the sector’s confidence, 60% of organisations with a revenue-producing business in wind expect to increase investment in floating offshore wind this year.
According to DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook, by 2050, 15% of installed offshore wind capacity will be floating wind, equalling 300 GW.
“Cost reduction does not happen by waiting, which makes it crucial that the first generation of larger floating wind farms are installed by 2030, to deliver on the promising outlook for floating wind,” commented Magnus Ebbesen, segment lead Floating Offshore Wind at DNV.
Ditlev Engel, chief executive, Energy Systems at DNV said that barriers must be tackled. “Governments can play a leading role in making the market attractive for investment, with long-term, stable policy and regulatory frameworks, and by adapting critical infrastructure such as grids and ports,” said Engel. “The industry itself will need to look at cost reduction through greater standardization and scale-up,” he added.
The survey showed that the leading criteria for choosing where to invest are actual market size (21%), regulatory and political stability (16%) and power grid suitability (12%).
According to respondents, the main factor for reducing levelised cost of energy (LCOE), cited by 21%, is standardisation, either through lowering the number of concepts or one preferable structure emerging. It is followed by bigger turbines (17%), industrialisation (17%) and larger wind farms (16%).
Asked about the biggest risk in the supply chain, the industry professionals say these are ports and infrastructure (22%), installation vessel availability (19%) and capacity (19%).
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Floating wind. Image by DNV.
