MAKE sees avg of 65 GW annual wind additions through 2027
Chart by MAKE.
Annual wind power capacity additions globally, both on- and offshore, will average 65 GW between 2018 and 2027, with China as the top market, according to MAKE's global wind forecast.
The market research firm forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4% over the period.
Up to the end of the decade, deployments will be driven by deadlines for key government incentives and new auction mechanisms. These will help the wind sector achieve a rise of over 30% in capacity additions between 2017 and 2020. After 2020 and up to 2027 growth will again surpass 30% thanks to offshore wind and emerging markets.
The top three markets for new capacity in the 10-year period of MAKE’s forecast are China, the US and India. Installations in China are healthy throughout the period, while in the US deployments are strong through 2020 due to the availability of federal tax credits. With the latter’s drop, however, capacity additions will also contract from 2021. India and emerging markets in the Asia Pacific region rank second after China in terms of new capacity over the 10 years.
Emerging markets in the Middle East and Asia (MEA) will actually achieve a 26% CAGR over the period, MAKE says. Apart from growth in Asia, this result will also be supported by contracts in South Africa and Saudi Arabia, and growth in Iran and Egypt.
MAKE expects the CAGR for Latin America to surpass 14% between 2018 and 2027, mainly as a result of auctions in Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, and Peru.
In Northern Europe offshore wind is expected to reach a share of 50% of new wind deployments. Significant capacities will be added in the UK, while Denmark, Sweden and Ireland will also contribute to the result. In Eastern Europe offshore wind will step on the stage, thanks to Poland’s efforts in that direction.
In China, offshore wind installations are seen to surpass 3 GW between 2022 and 2027, while in Taiwan offshore wind will represent 96% of all new wind capacity. Offshore wind accounts for more than a quarter of new capacity in Japan and South Korea, MAKE predicts. Leaving China aside, Asian offshore wind will achieve a CAGR of 45% in the 10 years, with annual additions averaging over 1.7 GW in 2022-2027.