IEA increases five-year forecast for renewables growth

Policy support in key markets and cost reductions have prompted the International Energy Agency (IEA) to raise its five-year growth outlook for renewables, it said today.

IEA now expects global renewable electricity capacity to grow by 42% or 825 GW between 2015 and 2021, which is a 13% more optimistic forecast than last year. It said the revision mostly reflects stronger policy support in the US, China, India and Mexico.

The more upbeat forecast comes as annual renewable electricity capacity growth reached a record of 153 GW in 2015, an increase of 15% compared to the previous year. Underlying this were record additions of 63 GW in onshore wind and 49 GW in solar photovoltaics (PV). For the first time, renewables accounted for more than half of new power capacity and surpassed coal in terms of cumulative installed capacity in the world, IEA said.

Over the next five years renewables are expected to cover more than 60% of the increase in global electricity generation. Their share in overall electricity is expected to grow to almost 28% in 2021 from over 23% in 2015.

The IEA also noted that while in most developed countries renewable generation additions will outpace electricity demand growth over the medium term, in many emerging markets renewables are expected to meet only a portion of new generation growth. China, for instance, will be responsible for 40% of global renewable power growth over the next five years, but that will cover only half of the country’s electricity demand increase.

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