Investments in the global offshore wind industry are projected to hit USD 1 trillion (EUR 950.6bn) by 2031, with the cumulative installed turbine capacity seen to mark an almost ten-fold growth by 2030, Wood Mackenzie says in a report.
The research and consultancy group, part of Verisk, anticipates that 24 countries around the world will have large-scale offshore wind parks, as compared to nine at present, which will bring the world’s total installed capacity to 330 GW by 2030 from 34 GW in 2020.
According to the report, as investments grow, the criteria for winning tenders will no longer be driven by price proposals alone. A set of four major criteria is also expected to come on the scene – local content, systems integration, ecological mitigation and sustainability, with the focus on each set to differ in the individual markets.
“As more companies bid, lease payments skyrocket and subsidies drop, project returns are falling. Cost competitiveness will always remain a central element of winning in offshore wind; however, a new set of factors beyond bidding price is gaining traction, and this will determine who wins and who loses in the industry,” explained Soeren Lassen, Head of Offshore Wind Research. He went on to say that the new parameters are seen to help deal with larger hurdles that could not be overcome otherwise.
Wood Mackenzie expects nearly 80% of the offshore turbine capacity that will go online by 2030 to be influenced by local content policies. According to it, the integration of offshore wind capacity with other technologies will also significantly weigh on tender outcomes amid the world’s efforts for decarbonisation. The sustainability of a project will be measured in terms of recyclability and emissions mitigation.
The researchers’ data shows that price and local content policy are regarded as major criteria in tenders in several Asian markets and the US, while in most countries in Northern Europe all criteria are considered, to some extent.
(USD 1.0 = EUR 1.052)
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