The US installed 2.5 GW of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity in the first quarter of 2018, up 13% year-over-year, according to a report today from GTM Research and the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA).
GTM Research expects the market to be flat in 2018 compared to 2017, with another 10.8 GW direct current (DC) of PV additions in the full year. Solar installations are then expected to grow more robustly in 2019 and to accelerate in the early 2020s, spurred partly by California's recent policy for solar on all new homes. By 2023, the US will install over 14 GW DC of PV capacity annually, according to the analyst firm.
"This data shows that solar has become a common-sense option for much of the U.S. and is too strong to be set back for long, even in light of the tariffs," said SEIA president and chief executive Abigail Ross Hopper. "States from California to Florida have stepped up with smart policies that will drive investment for years to come," she added.
Utility-scale segment
Utility PV accounted for 57% of installed capacity in the first quarter with 1.4 GW of projects going live. According to the latest US Solar Market Insight Report, 2018 utility-scale solar projects have been relatively insulated from tariffs and the forecast for utility-scale solar this year was even increased slightly to 6.6 GW from the 6.47 GW projected in March. The tariffs are expected to have a more significant impact on the segment in 2019 as several developers have announced project cancellations and more are negotiating to restructure their power purchase agreements (PPAs). GTM's forecast for 2019 has been reduced to 7 GW, while the 2020 and 2021 outlook is each set at 8.1 GW.
Residential segment
The residential PV sector installed 562 MW in the quarter, flat both on the year and on the quarter, after four quarters of year-over-year declines. GTM senior analyst Austin Perea said this is a sign that customer acquisition challenges and national installer pullback are abating but added that these problems are not entirely solved. Three of the top five residential solar markets in 2017, Maryland, New Jersey and New York, are expected to decline in 2018 for a second year in a row. Still, GTM expects growth to be flat in 2018 as the decline in some major state markets will be offset by growth in emerging markets such as Florida.
Non-residential PV
After a record quarter in the last three months of 2017, the non-residential segment installed 509 MW in the first quarter of 2018, up 23% year-over-year, although down 34% quarter-over-quarter. Demand in this segment continued to be driven by looming policy deadlines in California and the Northeast and community solar with Minnesota alone adding over 100 MW of community solar in the quarter, according to the report.
In the first three months of 2018, solar PV accounted for 55% of all electricity capacity added in the US in the period.
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Source: GTM Research / SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight, Q2 2018
