Thin-film, premium c-Si module supply to nearly triple to 14.5 GW in 2018 - NPD Solarbuzz

Oct 14, 2014 - Thin-film and premium crystalline silicon (c-Si) module supply is seen to increase nearly threefold to 14.5 GW in 2018 from 5.3 GW in 2014, according to the long-term most-likely scenario of NPD Solarbuzz on the development of photovoltaic (PV) technologies.

US-based market analytics company NPD Solarbuzz yesterday published its PV Technology Roadmap report, which shows that PV panels using standard solar-grade wafers will be found in 89% of the projected solar capacity for 2014. Manufacturers of thin-film modules, such as First Solar Inc (NASDAQ:FSLR) and Solar Frontier, would contribute about 8% and the rest would come from premium c-Si suppliers including SunPower Corp (NASDAQ:SPWR) and Panasonic Corp (TYO:6752).

Under the “most-likely PV technology roadmap” scenario for the next five years, the combined thin-film and premium c-Si module supply will surge to 14.5 GW thanks to expansions from existing players, while SolarCity Corp (NASDAQ:SCTY) and First Solar, among others, are expected to enter the premium c-Si category.

Based on the “accelerated PV technology roadmap” scenario, there will be a 200% growth in the served addressable market for premium c-Si module suppliers after 2015, boosting it to 7.6 GW in 2018.

“As leading PV producers review capacity additions from 2015 onwards, being able to benchmark proposed technologies will become a critical part of factory tool design and targeted customer groupings,” said Finlay Colville, vice president at NPD Solarbuzz.

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