Japan can reach a 35% renewable share in power by 2030 with a policy push for more solar and offshore wind, declining power demand, and some help from other renewables, a new report says.
Regulatory and grid barriers to renewables need to be addressed for the country to be able to tap capital markets to support national renewable energy programmes, the Institute for Energy Economics & Financial Analysis (IEEFA) says in its report “Japan: Greater Energy Security Through Renewables: Electricity Transformation in a Post-Nuclear Economy”.
THE CURRENT PICTURE
In Japan’s fiscal 2016 renewables reached 100 GW, according to IEEFA estimates. The table shows capacity to 2015 and the generation share for that year as calculated by the International Energy Agency (IEA), and IEEFA estimates for 2016 installations.
Capacity
in GW |
2010 |
2014 |
2015 |
Share
in 2015 |
2016e |
| Hydro |
47.7 |
49.6 |
49.9 |
8.4% |
49.9 |
| Solar PV (DC) |
3.6 |
23.3 |
34.1 |
3.6% |
45 |
| Wind |
2.3 |
2.8 |
3.0 |
0.5% |
3.1 |
| Geothermal |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.3% |
0.5 |
Since the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in 2011 and the shutdown of the Japanese nuclear industry, the country has been relying heavily on fossil fuel imports, which IEEFA says leaves it vulnerable to movements on foreign markets and geopolitical upheaval.
The good news is that power demand is falling, so many of the 45 proposed coal-fired power projects are not expected to reach the construction phase. Population in the country is declining thus limiting economic growth and energy efficiency is growing. As a result, power demand is seen to drop to 868 TWh in 2030 from 1,140 TWh in 2010.
OFFSHORE WIND
IEEFA says 10 GW of offshore wind in the country by 2030 is an “entirely feasible” target with the right policy framework and support. That figure comes from the Japan Wind Power Association which sees 700 MW by 2020, including 100 MW of floating wind, and 10 GW by 2030, including 4 GW floating capacity.
“Japanese offshore wind-power resources have been largely overlooked but have tremendous potential, and can viably contribute to baseload power demand,” IEEFA says. It noted that Japan has a well developed manufacturing industry with players like Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (TYO:7011) which has an offshore wind joint venture with Vestas (CPH:VWS).
SOLAR ENERGY
Photovoltaic (PV) capacity in Japan can reach 12% of its power generation mix by 2030, up from 4% currently, according to IEEFA. New policy support by the government will be required for the solar expansion in the country to continue at the levels achieved in the past few years.
Japan is moving to reverse auctions for large-scale solar, with 500 MW to be tendered this year, and 1 GW in 2018. Rooftop solar also has much room to expand.
IEEFA said large pumped hydro storage capacity and greater regional grid connectivity will facilitate the integration of more and more solar PV into the grid.
The full report can be found here.
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Wind turbine in Japanese waters. Author: mmatsuura.
