Renewable power share at 37% or 60% in 2040 IEA scenarios

Renewables will account for 37% of global electricity generation in 2040, according to the main scenario in the International Energy Agency's (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2016.

In a scenario consistent with limiting the global increase in temperature to 2 degrees C, a much higher percentage, almost 60%, of the power generated in 2040 is expected to come from renewables. Almost half of that will be from wind and photovoltaics (PV).

Currently, the share of renewables in power generation is 23%.

IEA said that renewables, as well as natural gas, win the race to meet energy demand growth until 2040. In its main scenario nearly 60% of all new power generation capacity to 2040 will come from renewables. The majority of renewables-based generation will also be competitive without any subsidies by 2040.

"We see clear winners for the next 25 years – natural gas but especially wind and solar – replacing the champion of the previous 25 years, coal," said IEA's executive director Fatih Birol.

He noted, however, that renewables' progress in the coming decades remains largely confined to electricity generation. "The next frontier for the renewable story is to expand their use in the industrial, building and transportation sectors where enormous potential for growth exists," Birol added.

Countries are generally on track to achieve, and even exceed in some cases, many of the targets set in their Paris Agreement pledges, IEA also said. According to the organisation, this, however, is far from enough to limit warming to less than 2 degrees C.

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