IHS sees 45.4 GW of fresh PV capacity in 2014, 53 GW in 2015

Oct 8, 2014 - China and the US will install over 7 GW of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity in the closing quarter of the year, helping bring the 2014 total to 45.4 GW, market analytics firm IHS (NYSE:IHS) said today.

Even though the company’s full-year forecast has been cut by 1.5 GW, it still means that newly installed capacity will be 20% more than the 37.8 GW in 2013. Next year annual solar capacity growth is expected to slow down to 16%. IHS' forecast for 2015 is for 53 GW of new PV capacity.

The fourth quarter of 2014 will be the strongest with 14.4 GW of expected capacity additions, or some 32% of the annual total. China and the US will account for half of all PV in October-December by adding over 5 GW and 2.3 GW, respectively.

The other two key markets this year are Japan and the UK. The Asian country is seen to reach a peak in terms of annual deployment at 9.1 GW for 2014. After that, IHS says, installation figures for Japan will start declining due to low land availability and grid connection issues. Also, there will be another review of the Feed-in tariffs in 2015.

The UK, on the other hand, is seen surpassing 3 GW of PV additions for the year and may even reach 3.2 GW. IHS pointed out that the recent decision to end renewable obligation support for 5-MW-plus solar projects will result in a rush to finalise such schemes by the end of March. Between October 2014 and March 2015 the researcher expects to see 3.1 GW of fresh PV capacity in Britain.

It is important to note that Germany and Italy, the former top markets for solar in Europe, will add only 2.1 GW and 0.8 GW in 2014, respectively. This compares to 2013 solar deployment of 3.3 GW and 1.7 GW. At the same time, many emerging solar markets are gaining speed.

Choose your newsletter by Renewables Now. Join for free!