Global solar demand to hit 51.4 GW in 2015 - TrendForce
Solar cell. Author: Michael Dorausch michaeldorausch.com License: Creative Commons
Dec 15, 2014 - Global solar market demand is expected to reach 51,400 MW next year, rising from about 44,000 MW in 2014, according to a new report by Taiwanese market researcher TrendForce.
Some 57% will come from just three key markets -- China, the US and Japan, Jason Huang, a research manager at TrendForce’s EnergyTrend division, projects. Their combined share, however, will be slightly lower than in 2014 as demand in emerging markets would continue to grow. Overall demand from countries out of top 10 in 2015 is seen surpassing 10,000 MW.
The research manager projects that in 2015 a single module manufacturer may manage to break the shipment record of over 5,000 MW. This means that in order to enter the top five list, a module maker should ship at least 3,500 MW next year. In 2014, the top three ones were all Chinese, namely Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL), Yingli Green Energy Holding (NYSE:YGE) and JinkoSolar Holding (NYSE:JKS). Each surpassing the 3,000-MW shipment threshold this year.
TrendForce named three variables that are expected to have an effect on the global supply chain next year. These are trade wars among countries, financial policies and electric grid development.
EnergyTrend forecasts that the price of polysilicon will drop significantly in 2015. This will be due, among other factors, to increased production including of low-priced polysilicon, China's anti-dumping and countervailing duties towards Europe, the US and South Korea and the expiration of long-term polysilicon contracts. The researcher expects the price per 1 kg of the raw material to range from USD 17.00 (EUR 13.68) to USD 20.00 throughout the year.
Meanwhile, solar cell makers are seen to face even tougher price competition as a result of which multi-silicon products would end up in a loss situation. As per modules, their prices will continue to fall, but still, the global tier-one panel makers will be able to bring down the cost to USD 0.43 per W by the end of 2015 and their profits could “shine even more”.