(ADPnews) - Oct 5, 2010 - New solar installations in Germany surged 327% on the year to 4.8 GW in the first eight months of 2010, and researchers expect them to reach 8 GW for the whole year.
“Germany added more than 3 GW of new PV capacity in the second quarter alone, which is a tremendous result given it added "only" 3.8 GW in the whole of 2009," Ash Sharma, PV Research Director at IMS Research, said last week. "High demand has been seen from almost every part of the German market and these results up to August solidify our prediction that the German market could reach up to 8 GW in 2010, and the global market more than 16 GW,” he added.
According to IMS Research, Germany accounted for 48% of global demand in the first three quarters of 2010, up from 40% a year earlier, driven by the intense speculation and debate over the country’s feed-in tariff (FIT) reductions and the subsequent three-step cuts in 2010.
Small commercial systems up to 100 kW in size have led demand and accounted for more than 2.6 GW, 280% higher than the year-ago period. Residential installations are estimated to have grown by 140% year-on-year and large commercial systems by almost 500%.
But whilst 2010 will undoubtedly produce a huge German market, uncertainty still looms over 2011. A large FIT cut is inevitable in Germany in 2012, which will likely drive big demand for PV systems in 2011, Sharma said.
"However, with only a single cut currently planned at the end of 2011, it is likely the market will cool considerably in Q1 2011. With production capacity being massively ramped up, it is very possible that this overcapacity will lead to big falls in prices through the supply chain. This could delay buying, and result in market revenues and margins indeed falling next year,” he added.