EnergyTrend sees 5% EV market share in 2020

The share of electric vehicles (EVs) in the global market will reach 5% in 2020 and 8%-9% in 2023, EnergyTrend has projected.

The green energy research unit of Taiwan's TrendForce said today that the global EV market continues to grow on the back of increasing oil prices, decreasing battery prices and stricter carbon dioxide (CO2) emission targets for vehicles. According to EnergyTrend senior research manager Duff Lu, the latter has been the main growth driver for EVs. In China, the target of CO2 emissions for cars is expected to be 119 g/km in 2020, compared to 200 g/km in 2015, while in North America and Europe, the targets will move to 124 g/km and 95 g/km, respectively in 2020 from 150g/km and 130g/km in 2015.

The price of lithium-ion batteries for vehicles, meanwhile, has fallen from about USD 400-600 per kWh in 2016 to USD 250-300 per kWh in 2018 and is expected to go below USD 200 per kWh in 2019.

According to EnergyTrend, the decreasing costs and increasing capacity of lithium-ion batteries could see EVs, which currently are designed for short- or mid-range ride, also used in the future for mid- to long-range ride of 400 km-600 km, which would squeeze the market share of fuel cells. In addition, according to EnergyTrend's survey, the average price of lithium-ion batteries in electric passenger cars now is about USD 15,000 and is seen falling below USD 10,000 in 2020, while the current cost of fuel cells is about USD 20,000.

(USD 1 = EUR 0.850)

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