Sep 27, 2013 - Emerging markets will reach solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity additions per year of as much as 10.9 GW by 2017, marking a significant jump from annual installations of some 2.2 GW in 2012, IHS (NYSE:IHS) projects.
In a new report the market research firm calculates that the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for PV in emerging countries will be 38% between 2012-2017. This compares to a CAGR of 13% for the global market. By 2017 emerging markets such as Thailand, Turkey, South Korea, South Africa, Chile and around 35 more are expected to hold a 19% share of global PV capacity. Last year that share was 7%.
In the Asia-Pacific region Thailand and South Korea are already “on the brink” of turning into maturing PV markets. According to IHS’ forecast, Thailand will install 2.9 GW between 2013 and 2017, with South Korea adding 2.6 GW.
In Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, the Netherlands and Switzerland are all in IHS’ top 10 ranking of emerging markets in terms of 2013-2017 demand. Expectations are for Turkey to install 2.8 GW in the period, Ukraine and the Netherlands - 2.2 GW each, and Switzerland - 1.6 GW. Other European solar markets that are gaining speed include Poland, Russia, Denmark and Romania.
South Africa, Israel and Saudi Arabia will be the most significant emerging solar destinations in the Africa-Middle East region. South Africa is seen to deploy 2.5 GW of PV capacity in 2013-2017, while 1.8 GW is the forecast for Israel.
Last but not least comes Latin America, where Chile, Brazil and Mexico are significant demand drivers, IHS says. Between now and 2017 Chile is projected to install 2.2 GW of PV, followed by Brazil with 2 GW.
“Although these markets sometimes have huge hurdles—like limited financing, regulatory uncertainty and opaque local regulatory conditions—companies throughout the solar supply chain can benefit from targeting these fast-growing emerging countries,” said osefin Berg, senior PV analyst at IHS.
IHS’ definition of “emerging” in the “Emerging Solar PV Markets Tracker” report covers countries that have less than 1 GW of cumulative capacity currently.
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