June 14 (Renewables Now) - Solar demand in China this year is estimated to reach just 31.6 GW, down by 40% on 2017, and the global market will also suffer, falling to 92 GW-95 GW, EnergyTrend said today.
This forecast is driven by the country’s decision to drastically limit support for new solar projects this year, the green energy research unit of Taiwan’s TrendForce said.
A notice on May 31 set a cap of 10 GW for distributed generation projects in 2018 and cancelled the utility-scale solar target for the year. Tenders are expected to replace the feed-in tariff (FiT) system. The central government also wants to leave support for solar in the hands of separate provinces.
EnergyTrend warns that oversupply in the photovoltaic (PV) industry will be more severe due to China’s change of policy. Prices have already started to fall.
The research firm expects a global solar decline of 5% to 8%. Demand will not return above 100 GW until 2019 when new markets are expected to come to the stage, it said.